Netflix denies $1 bn revenue estimate for ‘Squid Game’ Season 2

Still from "Squid Game" Season 2. /Courtesy of Netflix

Netflix has firmly denied claims that its orginal series “Squid Game” Season 2 will generate over 1.5 trillion won ($1 billion) in revenue, calling the projections “inaccurate.”

The streaming giant released a statement on Jan. 1 addressing a revenue forecast by K Entertech Hub, a South Korean research group. Netflix explained that as a subscription-based service, it does not make additional profit from individual show viewership or watch time. “It’s impossible to calculate revenue from the success of one show,” the company said.

Earlier that day, the research group had projected that Season 2 would earn at least 1.5 trillion won. The show reached the top of Netflix’s TV rankings across 93 countries within two days of its release on Dec. 26. According to streaming analytics site FlixPatrol, it achieved a perfect score of 930 points by ranking No. 1 in all 93 countries, a faster pace than the first season, which took eight days to hit the same milestone.

Data analytics firm Parrot Analytics reported that Season 2′s “demand factor” in the U.S. reached 108%, surpassing South Korea’s baseline of 100%. The series also performed well in markets like France (95%), Russia (81%), and Taiwan (80%). Social media analytics firm Sprout Social found that “Squid Game” was mentioned 3.1 million times on social media between Nov. 20 and Dec. 20, with an estimated 5.19 billion potential impressions.

K Entertech Hub based its revenue estimate on the performance of Season 1, which generated about 1 trillion won in revenue from a 25 billion won investment, a 40-fold return. With a production budget of 100 billion won for Season 2, four times that of Season 1, the research group projected at least a 10-fold return on investment, though not as high as the 40-fold return of the first season.

However, Netflix refuted these claims, saying, “There is no official method for calculating the monetary returns of individual shows. This approach may work for movie tickets or pay-per-view services, but it does not apply to subscription-based models.” The company emphasized that its business operates on subscription fees, not per-show earnings, and expressed concern about misleading analyses that could cause confusion regarding its business model.

[Lee Hye-jin]

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