Nomura flags heavy US investment burden for Samsung Electronics, SK hynix

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SEOUL, January 21 (AJP) - Samsung Electronics and SK hynix may need to invest between 100 trillion won and 120 trillion won ($74–89 billion) in the United States from 2027 to 2030 to secure tariff exemptions, according to a new analysis by Nomura Securities.

That would translate into annual investment of about 25 trillion won to 30 trillion won, or roughly a quarter of the two companies’ combined annual memory chip capital expenditure, estimated at 120 trillion won to 140 trillion won, the report said.

Nomura said tariff-exemption terms agreed between the United States and Taiwan are likely to be applied similarly to South Korea, making expanded U.S. investment by Korean memory chipmakers difficult to avoid.

Under arrangements reached during the Trump administration, Taiwanese companies building new semiconductor production facilities in the United States can receive tariff exemptions covering imports of up to 2.5 times their production capacity while construction is under way. After a facility is completed, imports of up to 1.5 times the new capacity can be exempted from tariffs.

Nomura noted that Samsung has already committed about $37 billion (54.4 trillion won) to U.S. foundry investments, while SK hynix has invested roughly $3.9 billion (5.7 trillion won) in U.S. packaging facilities. However, the brokerage said those investments are unlikely to be sufficient to fully secure tariff exemptions.

The report said the companies may need to expand memory production capacity in the United States, potentially at the expense of planned investment in South Korea.

Nomura estimated that, due to higher labor and operating costs, production costs at U.S.-based memory plants would be at least 40 percent higher than in South Korea.

“The ultimate impact on profitability depends on the supply-demand environment,” it said, adding that under similar conditions, higher costs are likely to be passed on to end customers.

Assuming operating profit margins for Korea-based production remain as high as 70 percent during a supply shortage, Nomura estimated margins at U.S. facilities could reach up to 58 percent. On a consolidated basis, that would imply overall margins in the mid-to-high 60 percent range.

Nomura said uncertainty over tariffs could weigh on share prices in the short term. However, if the memory supercycle continues through at least 2027, the negative impact from additional U.S. investment is likely to be limited in the short to medium term. The long-term impact would also remain contained if chipmakers maintain disciplined capital spending and solid profitability, it added.

* This article, published by Aju Business Daily, was translated by AI and edited by AJP.
Kim Na-yoon 기자 kimnayoon@ajunews.com

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